Furnace vs. Heat Pump: Which Heating System Actually Works Best in Texas Cold?

Published November 5, 2025

Your heating system just kicked on for the first time this season, and you’re wondering if there’s a better option out there. Maybe your energy bills seem higher than they should be, or you’re tired of dealing with a system that only heats when you also need cooling in our Texas climate.

Here’s some info: modern cold-climate heat pumps work effectively down to -15°F or lower, and in Dallas and Haltom City where winter lows typically stay between 30-40°F, they often outperform traditional furnaces in both efficiency and versatility. But that doesn’t mean a furnace is automatically the wrong choice for every home.

At Silver Spur Air, Heating, & Plumbing of DFW, we help homeowners make informed decisions about their heating systems based on their specific needs, not just what’s trending. This guide breaks down the real performance data, efficiency differences, and practical considerations to help you choose the right system for your home.

How Heat Pumps Actually Perform in Cold Weather (And Why the Myths Are Wrong)

You’ve probably heard someone say heat pumps “don’t work” when it gets cold. That used to be partially true for older models, but it’s outdated information in 2025.

Modern heat pumps maintain strong performance in temperatures well below what we experience in North Texas. They use advanced technologies like variable-speed compressors and enhanced vapor injection to keep working efficiently even when the temperature drops.

Here’s what the data shows:

Cold-climate heat pumps function effectively in temperatures as low as -15°F to -40°F depending on the model
In Dallas and Haltom City, where extremes rarely hit below 20°F, heat pumps maintain high performance without significant efficiency loss
A heat pump’s coefficient of performance (COP) remains around 2.0 even at -15°F, meaning it delivers twice the heat energy compared to the electrical energy it uses

Heat pumps transfer heat rather than generate it, which is why they’re more efficient. They move warmth from outside air into your home, even when it feels freezing to you. That’s possible because there’s still usable heat energy in outdoor air until you get to extremely low temperatures.

Industry expert Hannah Ritchie addresses this directly in her 2025 book “Clearing the Air,” noting that myths about heat pumps failing in cold conditions are debunked by real-world data from places like Sweden and Canada where they work reliably in much harsher winters than Texas sees.

For the rare occasions when temperatures drop unusually low, heat pumps have backup systems that engage automatically. If you’re concerned about those occasional extreme cold snaps, consulting with a professional about a dual-fuel system (heat pump with gas furnace backup) can give you the best of both worlds.

The Efficiency Numbers That Actually Matter for Your Energy Bills

When you’re comparing heating systems, efficiency determines how much you’ll spend to keep your home comfortable. The difference between furnaces and heat pumps is significant.

Heat pumps achieve COP values of 2.0 to 4.0, which translates to 200-400% efficiency. For every unit of electricity used, you get 2 to 4 units of heating. That’s not a typo. They genuinely multiply the energy because they’re moving heat, not creating it from scratch.

Gas furnaces have Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE) ratings that can reach up to 98% for high-end models. But here’s what matters more: actual performance typically falls to 80-90% due to venting losses and cycling inefficiencies.

Professor Jan Rosenow from Oxford University states on X, “Heat pumps are vastly more efficient than gas heating,” even when the electricity powering them comes from gas-fired power plants. The math simply works out better for heat pumps.

What This Means in Texas Winters

In our mild climate, heat pumps save energy year-round because they also provide cooling during our long, hot summers. A furnace requires a separate air conditioning system, which means two units to maintain instead of one.

According to data from Rewiring America, U.S. heat pump shipments reached 4.1 million units in 2024, surpassing the 3.1 million gas furnaces shipped. That shift reflects growing adoption driven by efficiency advantages.

For Dallas and Haltom City homes, heat pumps typically use less operational energy on most days. However, electricity rates vary, so it’s worth checking with a local HVAC company in Dallas to get specific estimates based on current utility pricing in your area.

Real-World Performance: What Happens When It Actually Gets Cold

Theory is one thing. What actually happens when winter arrives?

In Dallas-area winters, heat pumps maintain high efficiency without frequent defrost cycles because our temperatures stay relatively moderate. The system doesn’t have to work as hard as it would in genuinely cold climates.

When temperatures do drop, here’s what you can expect:

Heat Pump Performance in Cold Snaps

Between 30-40°F (typical Dallas winter): Heat pumps operate at peak efficiency with COP values around 3.0-4.0
Between 20-30°F (occasional cold fronts): Efficiency remains strong with COP around 2.5-3.0
Below 20°F (rare in North Texas): COP stays around 2.0, still more efficient than most furnaces
Below 5°F (extremely rare): Backup heating may engage, but this happens infrequently enough that it doesn’t significantly impact annual costs

Furnace Performance Across Temperatures

Furnaces provide consistent heat output regardless of outdoor temperature. They heat up faster initially, which some homeowners prefer on cold mornings. The combustion process generates heat directly, so you get the same performance whether it’s 40°F or 10°F outside.

However, that consistency comes with higher energy consumption throughout the heating season. You’re burning fuel to create heat rather than efficiently moving it from one place to another.

Breaking Down the Real Costs (Without the Sales Pitch)

Let’s talk about what you’ll actually spend, keeping in mind that exact numbers depend on your specific situation.

Heat pumps generally have higher upfront installation costs because they provide both heating and cooling in a single unit. That dual functionality means more complex components, but it also eliminates the need for a separate air conditioning system.

Furnaces typically cost less to install if you’re only looking at the heating equipment. But remember, you’ll still need an AC unit for summer, so compare the total cost of both systems when making your decision.

Operating Costs in Mild Climates Like Ours

In Texas winters, heat pumps typically reduce total energy consumption because of their higher efficiency. During rare cold snaps when gas rates are particularly low, a furnace might operate slightly more affordably for those specific days. But over the entire heating season, heat pumps usually come out ahead.

For comparison, data from Michigan (which experiences cold snaps similar to our Texas extremes) shows that with off-peak electricity at 16.4¢/kWh, heat pumps deliver heat at approximately 5.5¢ per kWh compared to 6.2¢ for gas furnaces at $1.73 per therm.

The 2025 Inflation Reduction Act offers incentives that can help offset initial costs. These rebates and tax credits change periodically, so reach out to a professional to learn what’s currently available and how much you might save.

The Pros and Cons That Actually Affect Your Daily Life

Let’s cut through the marketing and look at what really matters when you’re living with these systems.

Heat Pump Advantages

Versatility tops the list. You get both heating and cooling in one system, which simplifies maintenance and saves space. One unit handles your comfort year-round.

Environmental impact is significantly better. Heat pumps produce lower emissions even when powered by electricity from gas-fired plants, thanks to their efficiency advantage. If reducing your carbon footprint matters to you, this is a clear win.

Quieter operation is another benefit many homeowners appreciate. Modern heat pumps run more quietly than older systems, with outdoor units that won’t disturb your neighbors.

Better suited for mild winters like we experience in Dallas and Haltom City. The system operates in its sweet spot for efficiency most of the season.

Heat Pump Limitations

Reduced efficiency below 5°F is technically possible, though this temperature is rare in North Texas. When it does happen, backup heating engages automatically.

Reliance on electricity during outages means no heat if power goes out. Gas furnaces face the same issue since they need electricity for fans and controls, but this is still worth noting.

Furnace Advantages

Reliable performance in extreme cold is the furnace’s strongest selling point. If you live in an area that regularly sees temperatures below 20°F, furnaces deliver consistent heat.

Faster initial warm-up can make cold mornings more comfortable. The system reaches full heating capacity quickly.

Lower initial investment for the heating unit itself, though remember you’ll need separate cooling.

Furnace Limitations

Higher emissions from burning natural gas or propane contribute more to your carbon footprint.

Requires separate cooling systems, which means maintaining two different units and potentially dealing with two different service calls when something goes wrong.

Less efficient overall throughout the heating season, particularly in moderate climates where the temperature doesn’t justify the combustion approach.

What the 2025 Regulations Mean for Your Decision

New rules took effect this year that affect both systems, and you should know about them before making a purchase.

Starting January 1, 2025, EPA regulations under the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act prohibit new HVAC systems using refrigerants with Global Warming Potential (GWP) over 700. This phases out R-410A, which has a GWP of 2,088, in favor of newer A2L refrigerants like R-32 or R-454B.

These regulations apply to manufacturing, importing, and installing air conditioners and heat pumps. Systems made before 2025 can be installed until January 1, 2026, but after that, only the new refrigerant systems are allowed.

Texas follows federal standards, with SEER2 requirements mandating minimum efficiencies. For split air conditioning systems in southern states, that minimum is 14.3 SEER2.

There are no state-specific furnace bans in Texas, but incentives increasingly favor high-efficiency heat pumps as part of broader energy and environmental goals.

Make sure whoever installs your system is licensed and up-to-date on these regulations. At Silver Spur Air, Heating, & Plumbing of DFW, we ensure all our installations meet current compliance standards so you don’t have to worry about it.

Dual-Fuel Systems: The Best-of-Both-Worlds Option

If you’re torn between the efficiency of a heat pump and the reliable extreme-cold performance of a furnace, dual-fuel systems offer a solution.

A dual-fuel system combines a heat pump with a gas furnace backup. The system automatically switches between them based on outdoor temperature and efficiency calculations.

Here’s how it works in practice:

During mild weather (which covers most of our Dallas and Haltom City winter), the heat pump handles all heating efficiently
When temperatures drop to a predetermined point (often around 25-35°F depending on your settings and utility rates), the system switches to the furnace
The switch happens automatically, so you don’t have to think about it or adjust anything manually

This setup addresses concerns about electricity costs during the coldest days while maintaining the efficiency benefits for the majority of the heating season. According to Zero Homes analysis from 2025, “Heat pumps are a top pick in cold climates due to their efficiency and dual-fuel compatibility.”

The tradeoff is higher initial installation costs since you’re essentially getting both systems. However, for homeowners who want maximum flexibility and efficiency optimization, dual-fuel systems provide peace of mind along with lower operating costs.

How Your Home’s Specifics Change the Equation

Your house isn’t the same as your neighbor’s house, and that matters when choosing between a furnace and heat pump.

Insulation quality significantly impacts performance for both systems, but especially for heat pumps. A well-insulated home retains heat better, allowing the heat pump to maintain comfortable temperatures with less energy use.

Home size affects equipment capacity requirements. Larger homes need more heating capacity, which influences both equipment selection and operating costs. Undersized systems run constantly and waste energy, while oversized systems cycle on and off inefficiently.

Ductwork conditions play a bigger role than many homeowners realize. Leaky ducts can lose 20-30% of heated air before it reaches your living spaces, forcing either system to work harder and use more energy.

Local utility rates vary enough across the Dallas-Fort Worth area that they can shift the cost comparison between electric heat pumps and gas furnaces. Some areas have time-of-use rates that make electric heating more expensive during peak hours, while others have flat rates that favor heat pumps all day.

Existing equipment matters too. If you already have a newer furnace that works well, adding a heat pump for cooling and supplemental heating might make more sense than completely replacing a functioning system.

These variables are why the U.S. Department of Energy states, “A heat pump might be your best option for efficient heating and cooling,” while acknowledging that specific situations vary.

We recommend getting a professional assessment before making your final decision. At Silver Spur Air, Heating, & Plumbing of DFW, we evaluate your home’s insulation, size, existing equipment, and specific needs to recommend the system that will actually perform best for you, not just what’s easiest for us to sell.

Common Questions About Heating System Choices in North Texas

Is a heat pump better than a furnace for Texas winters?

For most homes in Dallas and Haltom City, yes. Heat pumps work efficiently in our mild winters where temperatures typically stay between 30-40°F and rarely drop below 20°F. They also provide cooling during our long, hot summers, giving you year-round climate control in one system. For homes concerned about occasional extreme cold snaps, dual-fuel systems combine heat pump efficiency with furnace reliability.

How do heat pumps and furnaces affect energy bills in Dallas?

Heat pumps typically lower energy use on most days because of their 200-400% efficiency compared to furnaces’ 80-90% real-world efficiency. However, electricity rates vary across the area, so actual costs depend on your utility provider’s pricing structure. Speak to an HVAC expert for personalized estimates based on your specific home and local rates.

Do heat pumps really work when it gets below freezing?

Absolutely. Modern cold-climate heat pumps function effectively down to -15°F or lower. In Dallas and Haltom City where freezing temperatures are occasional rather than sustained, heat pumps maintain strong performance throughout winter. They may use backup heating during rare extreme cold, but that doesn’t significantly impact annual efficiency.

What size heat pump or furnace do I need for my home?

Proper sizing depends on your home’s square footage, insulation quality, number of windows, ceiling height, and local climate. Oversized systems waste energy by cycling on and off frequently, while undersized systems run constantly and struggle to maintain comfort. A professional load calculation ensures you get equipment matched to your actual needs.

Are there rebates available for heat pumps in Texas?

Yes. Federal incentives under the 2025 Inflation Reduction Act can help offset installation costs, and some local utilities offer additional rebates for high-efficiency systems. These programs change over time, so contact a local HVAC professional to learn what’s currently available and how much you might qualify for.

What maintenance do heat pumps need compared to furnaces?

Both systems benefit from regular maintenance, typically twice per year. Heat pumps need filter changes, coil cleaning, and refrigerant level checks. Furnaces require filter changes, burner inspection, and safety system testing. Because heat pumps handle both heating and cooling, some homeowners find the single-system maintenance schedule simpler than managing separate heating and cooling equipment.

Ready to Choose the Right Heating System for Your Home?

The data clearly shows that modern heat pumps work effectively in Dallas and Haltom City winters, often delivering better efficiency and lower operating costs than traditional furnaces. But your home’s specific characteristics, existing equipment, and personal preferences all factor into the best choice for you.

We’ve helped many homeowners in the DFW area evaluate their heating options and install systems that keep them comfortable year-round. Whether you’re leaning toward a heat pump, prefer a traditional furnace, or want to explore dual-fuel systems, we can assess your home and provide recommendations based on your actual needs.

Don’t make this decision based on outdated information or sales pressure. Get a professional evaluation that considers your home’s insulation, size, existing equipment, and local utility rates.

Contact Silver Spur Air, Heating, & Plumbing of DFW today for a no-pressure consultation. We’ll walk through your options, answer your questions, and help you choose a heating system that makes sense for your home and budget. Our team serves Dallas, Haltom City, and the surrounding DFW area with honest advice and expert installation.